Machiavelli's The Prince: fortune is a river
The short answer
In chapter XXV of The Prince, Machiavelli gives fortune half of our actions and compares her to a river in flood that sweeps the plain. Where men built defences and canals in fair weather, the same flood passes with less force. A prince succeeds while the times suit his way, but few can change with the times, and Pope Julius II, always impetuous, died before times came that needed caution.
Chapters and transcript
- 0:00
Fortune governs half of our actions, Machiavelli wrote in The Prince.
In chapter XXV of The Prince, written in 1513, Machiavelli holds that fortune is the arbiter of one-half of our actions.
- 0:08
She leaves us the other half, or perhaps a little less.
She still leaves us to direct the other half, or perhaps a little less, so that our free will is not extinguished.
- 0:15
He compared her to a river in flood that overflows the plains.
He compares fortune to a raging river which, when in flood, overflows the plains.
- 0:24
Trees and buildings are swept away; everything yields to it.
It sweeps away trees and buildings and carries the soil from place to place; everything flies before it. The river in the film is a model: one flood, drawn twice.
- 0:37
But in fair weather, men can build defences and barriers.
Yet when the weather is fair, men can make provision with defences and barriers.
- 0:45
When the same flood rises, the water passes away by canal.
Then when the waters rise again they pass away by canal, and their force is neither so unrestrained nor so dangerous.
- 0:52
Fortune shows her power where no one prepared to resist her.
So it is with fortune, who shows her power where valour has not prepared to resist her. He points to Italy, an open country without barriers.
- 0:59
Two princes: one cautious, one impetuous, in changing times.
Men seek glory and riches by different methods, one with caution, another with haste. The run of calm and stormy times in the film is an example.
- 1:06
Each succeeds while the times suit his way, and fails when they change.
Each succeeds or fails according to whether his methods conform to the spirit of the times; in the example each fixed prince succeeds in 5 of 10.
- 1:15
Few can change with the times: they will not leave the way that served them.
A man is not often found who can accommodate himself to the change, because he cannot deviate from his nature and, having always prospered one way, cannot be persuaded to leave it.
- 1:27
Pope Julius II was always impetuous, and the times always suited him.
Pope Julius II went to work impetuously in all his affairs and found the times conform so well to that line of action that he always met with success.
- 1:33
His life was too short, Machiavelli wrote, to meet times that needed caution.
The shortness of his life did not let him experience the contrary; had times arisen that required caution, Machiavelli writes, his ruin would have followed.
Sources
Every figure in the film comes from these. The animation is illustrative.