Fortune governs half of our actions, Machiavelli wrote in The Prince.

She leaves us the other half, or perhaps a little less.

He compared her to a river in flood that overflows the plains.

Trees and buildings are swept away; everything yields to it.

But in fair weather, men can build defences and barriers.

When the same flood rises, the water passes away by canal.

Fortune shows her power where no one prepared to resist her.

Two princes: one cautious, one impetuous, in changing times.

Each succeeds while the times suit his way, and fails when they change.

Few can change with the times: they will not leave the way that served them.

Pope Julius II was always impetuous, and the times always suited him.

His life was too short, Machiavelli wrote, to meet times that needed caution.