Pride: why almost everyone thinks they're above average

Chapters and transcript

1. 0:00

   Almost everyone thinks they are above average.

   Picture a hundred people split by a line at the middle: fifty above it, fifty below. Ask them where they stand, and most of them point above the line.

2. 0:11

   Half of any group sits above its middle, and half below.

   By definition, half of any group is above its middle and half is below it. Only half can be in the top half.

3. 0:29

   Of 161 students in the US and Sweden, 93% of the Americans put their driving in the top half.

   In Svenson’s 1981 survey of 161 students in the US and Sweden, 93% of the US students put their own driving skill in the top half. 69% of the Swedish students did the same.

4. 0:47

   Only 50 of 100 can be in the top half, so at least 43 of the 93 are wrong.

   The top half holds only 50 of every 100 people, so at least 43 of the 93 who placed themselves there cannot be right.

5. 1:01

   Some above-average is arithmetic: one very low score pulls the average down.

   In a skewed group, one very low score drags the average down, so most people sit above it: here nine of ten scores are above the average of 7.2.

6. 1:10

   A top-half claim cannot be explained that way: half of any group is in the top half.

   The arithmetic explains some of the above-average feeling, but not the top-half claims: the top half is exactly half, so the 93% is a bias, not a skew.

7. 1:19

   Among University of Nebraska faculty, 94% rated themselves above average.

   In a survey of University of Nebraska–Lincoln faculty, 94% rated themselves above average for teaching ability (Cross, 1977).